STATE OF THE UNION

The state of our divided union is . . .

Uncertain.

It was uncertain on Monday and will be uncertain tomorrow.

The Constitution requires that the President "from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union".  

For most of our history, this came in the form of a written report.  Though George Washington and John Adams delivered their state of the unions in speeches, Thomas Jefferson discontinued that practice. He thought a personal address was too "monarchical".

Back then, the prevailing view favored a strong separation of powers.  

In following the Constitution, although the president had to "from time to time give . . . Congress Information" on the state of the union and could even (as the ensuing clause permits) "recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient", the ambiguous nature of the requirement (by no means annual or even routine) and the obvious status of his ideas (recommendations, not orders) made it clear that only Congress could actually make law.

Put simply, everyone had to stay in their lane. 

All that changed in 1913, however, when Woodrow Wilson became president.

Wilson's vision of the presidency differed from that his predecessors. 

With few exceptions, policymaking prior to the Wilson administration started in Congress. Wilson, however, wanted to set the agenda or at the very least be an active proponent in the process of doing so.  According to his biographer John Cooper, Wilson "as a legislative presence . . . ranks up there with FDR and LBJ".  His reduced tariffs, Federal Reserve Act, and Clayton Antitrust Act were historic wins, and his first-in-a-century in person State of the Union was an intentional sign of what was to come. 

As Cooper puts it, the 28th president "wanted to break the precedent" started by the third and practiced by the next twenty-four.  Nonetheless, when it was reported that Wilson had decided to  jettison that precedent, the "disbelief . . . expressed in congressional circles" was strong. So strong, in fact, that The Post had to "assure[] its readers . . . such spectacles were 'not to become a habit.'"

Oh, well.

How has that worked out?

Donald Trump will deliver his sixth state of the union address tonight.

It will be all spectacle.

On the facts, the actual state of the union this year is not much different from what it was the year before and the year before that. 

The economy is both in relatively good shape and enormously challenging.  The top line inflation and employment numbers are about where they were at the end of the Biden presidency.  Inflation hovers in the neighborhood of 3%, unemployment in the neighborhood of slightly more than 4. 

The challenge these otherwise not so terrible numbers present is inequality. As the rich and super rich have taken larger and larger shares of the nation's productivity gains, the ability of everyone else to navigate rising costs at whatever level (i.e., affordability) and obtain and retain jobs that pay living wages has eroded. 

Lots of otherwise productive citizens are an illness or job loss short of bankruptcy. 

No one is saving.

In this environment, the nation's 47th president has nothing to report that has either reduced this burden or will ameliorate it going forward.  

His Big Beautiful Bill cut taxes at the (ever growing) top and services to the (continually struggling) bottom and  middle.  His "Make America Healthy Again" (MAHA) Secretary of Health and Human Services watched measles explode while disassembling the nation's public health infrastructure, defunding ground breaking research and leaving the World Health Organization (WHO). 

His Department of Justice prosecutes his enemies, albeit unsuccessfully and often comically. When DC's US Attorney Jeanine Pirro sought indictments of the six Democrats who publicly told servicemen and women they did not have to follow illegal orders, she literally obtained zero votes from the grand jurors.

Zero.

(Memo to Jeanine: If I had done this when I was an Assistant US Attorney, I would have been fired.  PS Love to your pardoned ex Al, glad he's staying out of trouble.) 

His Department of Homeland Security is lawless, trigger happy and the tragic source of a growing body count. 

His tariffs have just been declared unconstitutional.

On foreign policy, Ukraine and Russia are still at war.  There is no peace deal in sight because, with Trump in his pocket, Putin knows he does not need one. 

Gaza is off the front page but by no means peaceful. Hamas has not disarmed. 

Despite repeated claims that Iran's nuclear facilities were obliterated in the June 2025 Israeli and American bombings, a flotilla of American aircraft carriers and destroyers now stand by in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf, apparently ready to strike if Iran does not agree to limit the nuclear program Trump says we already destroyed.

Go figure.

This is not a presidency that takes on and solves big problems.

Generally speaking, it ignores big problems (e.g., inequality, China), takes a swing at small ones (e.g., Maduro, the border), and creates problems that heretofore did not exist (e.g., Canada, Greenland, the gold-winning American men's hockey team). 

It routinely violates the law. (A DOJ lawyer has just been held in contempt in Minnesota and DOJ admitted in federal court in New Jersey that it violated court orders fifty-two times.)

And it is corrupt.

I do not know what Donald Trump will say tonight.

I do know it will be a performance.

A very long and extravagant one with . . . 

Created facts, paraded supplicants, faux praise and bestowed honors.

From someone whose ultimate answer is always . . .

Himself.

It will be given to an amen chorus of enablers . . .

Punctuated by the stoic faces of a minority who resist.

In other words, it will be . . .

Spectacle.

The 28th president bequeathed but avoided that.

The 47th can never get enough of it.

No thank you, Mr. Wilson.