What's wrong with the Democrats?
Biden's numbers are underwater by about three points. Moderates and progressives in the party are engaged in a stand-off over the two (one small and bipartisan; the other large and not) infrastructure bills. Neither bill at this point has been passed.
To right the ship, Biden spent most of yesterday huddled in meetings with Congressional Democrats. According to media reports, the meetings were cordial. "We're calm, and everybody's good, and our work's almost done," said Nancy Pelosi, trying to sound upbeat. But Biden's press secretary, Jen Psaki, struck a more ominous note. Biden, she said, recognizes "there needs to be deeper engagement" by him; he "sees his role as . . . working to bring together people over common agreement and on a path forward."
In other words, they aren't there yet.
The problem is thorny.
Stated simply, the Democrats are divided. Progressives want the second infrastructure bill voted on and passed at the same time as the first. Moderates want the second bill scaled back appreciably and some would even agree to pass the bipartisan package first and then deal with the second later. Progressives know that if they agree to that, there either won't be a second bill or the bill will be a shadow of its former self.
Although the competing factions are all Democrats, it's not clear that they trust each other. The moderate with the most muscle, conservative Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, has made it clear that he will not vote for the second bill if the price tag is anywhere near the $3.5 trillion it now carries. Manchin -- whose vote is needed to move the bill through the reconciliation procedure that avoids a Senate filibuster -- has intimated that he may support a bill priced at $1-1.5 trillion but no more.
To progressives, however, Manchin sounds like a Republican.
His argument against the big bill is that it will be inflationary and add to the nation's debt.
Progressives think both claims are bogus.
For at least two reasons.
One is that Republicans do not give a damn about debt when they vote for deficit-financed tax cuts or massive (and always bigger) defense budgets.
The other is that the bill spreads its spending over ten years and that the actual projects -- roads, bridges, airports, broad ban, alternative energy, pre-K, community college, child care and elder care -- will increase productivity and therefore reduce inflation. Though conservatives claim that the tax increases included to finance the bill reduce private investment, the alternatives (principally user fees and hiking the gas tax) are more regressive and therefore exacerbate the inequality that our second Gilded Age has itself turned into a massive problem.
There is no solution here other than . . .
Compromise.
So . . .
Here's mine.
Progressives should agree to swallow hard and reduce the price tag on the second infrastructure bill. If necessary, they should agree to a $1.5 - 2 trillion bill in exchange for Manchin's vote. In exchange, however, Manchin will have to agree to modify the filibuster and allow the Senate to pass either the voting rights bill sent to it by the House or the different but acceptable bill Manchin wrote but cannot get any Republicans to support.
What Manchin and his progressive colleagues have to understand is that they share a problem.
The problem is that the GOP is working overtime to have all of them removed and has fixed upon voter suppression as the means to that end.
Early voting, mail-in voting, absentee voting and drop boxes were the keys to increasing the turnout of registered voters to over 60% in 2020 and the record 81 million votes cast for President Biden. In states where they control the legislative and executive branches, however, Republicans are significantly limiting those options in order to suppress Democratic turnout. If those efforts are not stopped, the GOP will succeed and the Democrats' (bare) majorities in the House and Senate will be lost come the 2022 mid-terms.
Manchin is not up for re-election in 2022 but is in 2024. In 2018, his last time on the ballot, his margin of victory was only 3%. In 2020, Trump won the state with almost 70% of the vote. If Trump is on the ballot in 2024 and Manchin wants to win, he'll need all the new (and old) voters he can find.
Suppression will kill him.
But either the House voting rights bill or his own will probably stop that.
Both bills guarantee early and absentee voting. They also increase the locations and require a minimum number of drop boxes, make Election Day a federal holiday and make it a felony to limit voter access to the polls. They require disclosure on dark money and ban the removal of election officials for other than misconduct. If passed, they will stymie Republican efforts to rig future elections in their favor and give Democrats at least a fighting chance of prevailing in fair contests.
If they are not passed . . .
Elections will no longer matter.
The GOP is a schizophrenic party. In the capital, leaders like Mitch McConnell pretend nothing is different and run the same play they ran against Obama. It's the politics of "No" coupled with the hypocritical claims that spending will return us to the inflation of the '70s and bequeath a crippling debt. In their world, inequality is a myth and the white, non-college working class has been Trumpified, buyers of a continuing but faux populism that now includes the lie that the last election was stolen.
The greatest problem in the country is still Trump.
And the only way to eliminate him is to beat him and his enablers at the polls.
So . . .
There's the deal.
Call it bridges for ballots.
A little less of the first for a lot more of the second.
Get it done Democrats.
The country is at stake.
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