THE MID-TERMS -- WHAT'S AT STAKE
Here we go again.
In a little more than two weeks, America will go to the polls in mid-term elections that will determine the fate of 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 Senators.
In these elections, the incumbent president's party usually loses seats, often in large numbers.
This is usually because a sizeable number of those who voted for the president two years earlier are now either bored or embarrassed and decide to stay home rather than cast their lot with his supporters this time around.
It is also because those who voted against the incumbent two years earlier either have not changed their minds about him or have grown to dislike him even more, and are therefore eager to send him a message.
Given the current president, both of these tendencies have been exacerbated this year.
It is more or less a given that Donald Trump is, as far as presidents go, uniquely unpopular these day.
At least 60% of the country disapproves of the job he is doing.
And truth be told, the words "at least" are doing a lot of work in that last sentence.
These days, approval ratings are reported as polling averages. Dozens of polls are done and the average from all of them is calculated and then reported. This approach helps counteract whatever flaws might exist in any individual poll owing to things like a small sample size or unique methodologies or historic biases.
This approach, however, can also disguise trends.
In The New York Times latest approval ratings, the two most recent polls report that 64% of the respondents disapprove of Trump. The Times rates these polls as "select" because they meet at least two of three standards (for accuracy in recent elections, probability-based sampling, and membership in a professional polling organization). Lest anyone thinks these criteria are just the grey lady's partisan cover, one of those polls was sponsored by Fox News.
Of the twenty-five polls that form the group from which the "average" has been counted during the last three weeks, only six are "select" polls. The rest did not satisfy two of the three criteria and one was labelled overtly partisan. The Times' "select" polls, however, are supposed to be better than the others. And all of those "select" polls -- not just the last two -- reported disapproval levels much higher than the average.
None of this should be surprising.
The sheer level of incompetence, corruption, dishonesty and illegality with Trump and his administration has been breathtaking.
Because all of this takes new forms each week, we need highlight reels to keep track.
This week it’s a diesel deal with Russia that violates our law and funds Putin's illegal (and continuing) war against Ukraine and his support for Iran. Last week, Kimberly Guilfoyle, America's now ex-Ambassador to Greece, took her star turn on the Trump merry-go-round of corruption with reports that she solicited a GOP donor to pay her $100,000 Amex bill in exchange for access and influence in the administration.
This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an annual inflation rate of 3.7%, an increase of 0.6 % in a month. The price of gas alone was up 9.6%, a consequence of Trump's unauthorized and illegal war with Iran. Last week, ICE shot a father in his car with his five-year-old son.
All of this is on top of a laundry list of past immoralities, illegalities, insanities and inanities.
Hegseth’s decision to live stream an execution.
The revenge prosecutions of Trump critics.
The killing of Good and Pretti.
The assault on the Fed.
The destruction of JFK's Center and Jackie's Rose Garden.
The vanity Ballroom and Arch.
The J6 pardons.
J6 itself.
The Supreme Court's supine six willing to tolerate all of this and . . .
The Congressional caucus of GOP cowards willing to support it.
In 2020, my biggest fight was with a friend who decided to vote for Trump after supporting the Democrats his entire life. The big stuff seemed not to bother him. If you claimed Trump was an authoritarian or fascist, he thought you were over the top. He dismissed the charge as overblown. A fan of JD Vance, my friend appeared to take a leaf out of JD's book -- J6 was just a protest and power had been transferred on January 20, all sturm und drang to the contrary notwithstanding.
My argument then was that my friend was missing the point.
It is the same now.
If fascism or authoritarianism or Trumpism (or whatever else you want to call it) succeeds in destroying America and American democracy, it won't take the form of a holocaust. In fact, even in Germany and Italy in the 1920s and 30s, it did not take that form initially. Fascists proceed incrementally. They piece-by-piece undermine and destroy institutions and then implement their plans via the rump that remains.
That is what Trump is trying to do.
And much of it is being done under the radar.
It's not making the laundry list . . .
Or the highlight reel.
Last week, Michael Lewis published his latest book -- Blockers.
It is the story of six federal employees who tried to stand in the way of Trump's stupidity over the past twenty-two months.
But who ultimately . . .
And to our collective loss . . .
Failed
One of them is Francis Collins.
From 2009-2021, Collins was the Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), a group of twenty- seven centers and institutes that funds and conducts biomedical research through universities and at its own labs in Maryland. He was famous for inventing a search engine for genes (called "Chromosome jumping") as a Yale post-doctoral student and then using it to find the gene responsible for cystic fibrosis. Afterwards, he ran NIH's international Human Genome Project before becoming NIH's Director. When his time as Director ended, he returned to his research lab.
On February 27, 2025, he was fired.
He was told he could resign and go quietly or be fired for cause.
When he asked what the cause would be, his boss said they would "make it clear that you funded research in China where the COVID virus was cooked up and that you caused untold harm by shutting down the country." But, he said, "If you retire we won't say anything."
The question of how COVID came to be is a scientific one. As Lewis reports in Blockers, "while a case can be made that it had been cooked up inside a lab in Wuhan, the far stronger case, rooted in genetic analysis, was still that it had been cooked up inside a bat." It is also a question which, he reports, "science was likely one day to settle."
Because he wanted his lab to survive his departure, Collins went quietly.
In the six month before he met Michael Lewis, however, he constantly wondered who, specifically, had done him in.
He had five suspects. In Blockers, Lewis could not say whether any one of them was responsible for canning Collins. But all of them had a grudge against Collins and against science.
As Lewis pointed out "Whoever had come for Francis was out to get more than Francis. Science was the real enemy."
Two of the suspects were RFK, Jr. and Russell Vought and both of them had been stymied by Collins and science.
During the first Trump term, when Collins was NIH's Director, Jared Kushner asked him to invite Kennedy to NIH to make a presentation. He did, and beforehand, Kennedy sent Collins a list of 94 academic papers supporting the claim that vaccines cause autism and asked NIH to review them.
NIH's scientists did so.
The meeting did not go well.
From Blockers:
"After forty-five minutes, it got acrimonious," said one of the institute heads. "Francis is basically saying. 'We looked into all these papers you sent, all this stuff has been debunked, and you simply aren't listening.'" Kennedy's attitude toward Francis was a bit like the American tourist's response to the foreigner who doesn't understand English. He'd say the same thing, only louder. "Finally, Francis just says, 'Okay, this isn't going anywhere. This meeting is over.'"
This meeting is over. It was very unlike Francis to be so abrupt. Francis basically never showed his temper. The sight of it was as improbable as Mister Rogers in a road rage incident. It might happen, but you had to push him. Still, there was zero question in the minds of those present that RFK, Jr. walked out of the meeting pissed off. After the meeting, Francis had written him polite notes. He stopped answering after the first.
Russell Vought was a different case.
With Kennedy, according to Lewis, "Science had made it harder for" Bobby's "opinions to replace the truth." With Vought, "The offense science committed . . . was less personal but more urgent: it checked his power."
In the past with NIH, Congress appropriated money and the executive then let the scientists decide how to spend it. That model had turned American biomedical research into the envy of the world. When, however, Vought became OMB Director at the start of Trump's second term, that ended. He "could not abide decisions about how to spend the money, and where to direct the future, to be left to scientific experts. He wanted those powers, along with others, for himself" and wrote "a rule that required all NIH grants to be approved not by the experts who had been judging which science to fund for ninety years" but rather by himself.
Trump usually does not cede power.
With Vought and Kennedy, however, his relationships are personal.
On January 6, 2021, when everyone in Trumpville was heading for the lifeboats, Vought "professed blind loyalty." Though Trump may not fully grasp the (il)legality of impoundment, he fully understands that.
A version of the same is the case with Kennedy. He had a purchase on the whole anti-vax crowd that he helped deliver to Trump in 2024 (along with his famous last name). And a Trump who cannot paste his name on Uncle Jack's Center will not be giving that away any time soon.
One of the sadder codas to this tale is that Russell Vought's daughter, Porter, was born in 2014 with cystic fibrosis. By the time she turned seven, however, the FDA had approved a drug she took and was cured. If Francis Collins had not located the gene that caused cystic fibrosis, that drug would not exist.
Again from Blockers:
As he considered his child, Vought had to know . . . that he owed her life to Francis and, more broadly, to work sponsored for fifty or more years by the National Institutes of Health. He chose not to let that truth in. He might not have put an end to Francis Collins's career, but he could have stopped whoever wanted to--and he hadn't. The deeper why of it was the mystery.
As Lewis concludes, who canned Collins is a "black box" that "would remain closed".
In his life, Collins had "solved one of the great mysteries of human existence."
"He was able to get his mind around so much."
"He finally collided with a thing he'd never fully comprehend:"
"Cruelty."
Me too.
Vote.
