Friday, July 22, 2016

TURNING THEM OFF

TURNING THEM OFF

I am angry.  

For four days, I have barely turned on the television.  I've caught snippets of the speeches from the Republican National Convention -- Chris Christie encouraging delegates to "lock her up"; Rudy Giuliani blaming blacks for the death of cops; countless walk-ons claiming Hillary Clinton was responsible for the death of our ambassador and others in Benghazi; Melania plagiarizing Michelle.

But every time I tried to focus, the screen went blank.  

I am, by reputation and long practice, what many would call a political junkie.  Not the sort of political junkie who makes his living at it -- like the pundits and all those politicians who keep getting re-elected each year.  But at one point I wanted to be one of them. Only the voters saved me. In 1992 I ran for Congress and lost.  

In 1993, I met Bruce Babbitt -- then Secretary of the Interior in the first Clinton Administration -- at a fundraiser in upstate New York.  A photographer was following him. I told him about that run for Congress  and asked if he'd take a picture with me.  He said "Sure." And just before the camera was about to click, he whispered in my ear . . .

"You still have the virus."

I know he was right.

Because a year later, I ran again.

And lost again.

The addiction, however, was still there.  From 1996 to 2001, I served on the New York State Democratic Committee and for a couple of years was even one of the vice-chairs of the party.   In 2000, I pulled an all-nighter waiting for the networks to decide who won the Presidency. As we all know now, they couldn't.  Throughout this period,  I helped other people run. And when it came to the political conventions, I was all in.

Much to the chagrin of my family, I spent a week during the summer of 2004 screaming at the Republicans maligning John Kerry.  They were in New York City at their convention.  I was on the Outer Banks in North Carolina. 

On vacation.  

But that didn't matter.  For me, at convention time, it was gavel-to-gavel.

Until this year.  

And this GOP convention.

Cleveland was gavel-to-gavel bile.  Sheer hatred.  Packaged in paranoia.  The "Melania loves Michelle" kerfluffle was a respite, an unforced time-out from the otherwise steady diet of lies . . .

Served up by a retinue of C-list speakers . . .

To an audience that had more in common with a lynch mob than a nominating convention. 

Trump is their strong-man in waiting.  He has no ideas, just loud- mouthed pronouncements.  And I mean it when I say "loud"; he spent most of his seventy-seven minute "speech" last night . . .

Shouting.

He is an an out-sized ego married to a lazy brain.   He pretends his opponents have brought us to the brink of catastophes that do not exist -- impugning illegal immigrants as the criminals they are not; asserting ISIS was brought to you by Clinton when its true parents were the neo-cons and  Bush II; claiming the number of cops killed has risen when over the last four decades it has been steadily declining; making the same claim about homicides generally; and even asserting that a professional like FBI Director James Comey is corrupt because he refused to indict someone who did not commit a crime.

By force of will, he then claims these made-up problems will disappear with his ascension to the Presidency. He tells you this will happen "fast," but he never tells you how.   Or, if he does, the means are either things that won't happen (the "wall"), haven't worked (the "tax cut" or combat troops  in Iraq), are truly dangerous (the effective renunciation of NATO),  or are  . . .

Just plain crazy.

Falling into this last category was the ludicrous offer -- reported during the GOP Convention this week --  that, in an effort to induce Gov. Kasich to accept the Vice-Presidential nomination, Trump -- through his son, Donald, Jr.-- told Kasich that Trump would make him the most powerful Vice-President in history by giving him absolute authority over all domestic and foreign policy.

In other words, before he even assumed the office, Trump wanted to out-source the Presidency to his running mate.

No wonder critics think he's more interested in getting the job than he is in actually doing it.

These people -- Trump, Christie, Rudy, the assorted hangers-on,  and the audience of lunatic-fringers --  have no judgment, no perspective.  They cannot distinguish what is critical from what is important, what is important from what is advisory, what is advisory from what is secondary, and what is secondary from what is irrelevant.  They do not separate fact from fiction.  They lie with impunity.

And they think the rest of us are going to stay-tuned for the continuing show.

Not me.

I just turned it off.

And on election day this November, so will the country.

We are not the fools they take us to be.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

WHEN "WILL IT WORK" BECOMES A SUBSTITUTE FOR "IS IT RIGHT"

WHEN "WILL IT WORK" BECOMES A SUBSTITUTE FOR "IS IT RIGHT"

It's almost impossible to get a handle on what is going on.

For the past twenty-four hours, the media buzz has been all about Donald Trump's racism.  The proximate cause for this outburst was Trump's repeated claim that the Indiana-born judge in the faux Trump University civil case has an inherent conflict of interest because of his Mexican heritage. This has taken Muhammad Ali's death and Hillary Clinton's presumptive nomination and placed these stories, if not off the front page, then decidedly below the fold.

Erstwhile GOP supporters (or, as they now call themselves, those in the party who intend to "vote" for him) have claimed that Trump's attack on Judge Curiel was "completely unacceptable" (Newt Gingrich), "flat out wrong" (John Kasich), and  "absolutely unacceptable" (Sen. Susan Collins of Maine).  House Speaker Paul Ryan called Trump's claim a "textbook . . . racist comment."  And South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham, who won't endorse Trump but has of late at least cozied up to him,  said those who have endorsed Trump should now "rescind" their support.

For a number of reasons,  however, I  don't get it.

To begin, anyone surprised to discover that Donald Trump is a racist wins this year's Captain Renault award.

Renault, for all of you young enough not to know, was the Vichy police chief in the film-version of French Morocco's Casablanca who, on enforcing his Nazi superior's order that Rick's be closed immediately, told Humphrey Bogart that he was "shocked" to discover gambling going on in the Cabaret. Within seconds of this announcement, Renault pockets his evening's "winnings."

Roughly the same thing is going on now with Trump.

The Donald has run a racist campaign from the get-go.  Whether he was calling Mexicans rapists, or banning non-citizen Muslims from entering the country, or feigning ignorance of David Duke's white supremacy, or eating Taco bowls in service to a self-proclaimed love of Hispanics, or pointing out his "African-American" at a recent rally, the campaign's central trope has been overtly racist. The birther-in-chief who questioned Obama's nativity was appealing to all those out-of-work blue and not-so-blue collars quite certain that the cause of their demise was not Wall Street . . . or corporate greed . . .  or the lack of any fiscal policy worthy of the name, but rather was on account of . . .

Them.

Where "them" was always some group whose identity "they" either could not change  (nationality, race, country of origin) or were ostensibly free to choose without adverse consequence (religion).

The notion that Trump has only now crossed some unacceptable line is a farce.

He crossed that line long ago.  

In fact, he began his whole campaign on the wrong side of it.

The elites cannot have it both ways.  They cannot endorse or say they will "vote" for Trump on the one hand but condemn his racism on the other.  The former cancels out the latter and turns any pretense of disapproval into hypocritical word salad.  

The same, moreover, is true of the media.  On today's edition of Morning Joe, Mika Brzezinski said that any Republican endorsing Trump in light of his attack on Judge Curiel would be forever "stained."  As a guest on the show, the Washington Post's Eugene Robinson echoed both those comments and  his own in an op-ed published the day before.  In that op-ed, Robinson  warned "GOP leaders" that those "who choose 'party unity' over principle should know that there is no way back; when you embrace Trump, you make a decision that will stay with you forever." 

Both of them are right.  

But both of them are also late to the game.  

Why the delay?

As part of her analysis this morning, Brzezinski also said that Trump's comments on the judge were different from his Mexicans-as-rapists and ban-all-Muslims assertions earlier in the year.   The latter, she said, worked; in other words, they helped Trump win the primaries and the nomination. Brzezinski, however, contended that the attack on Judge Curiel "will not work."

And therein, I think, hangs the tale.

The answer, as it were, to the riddle of Trump's endurance.

Too many pundits and politicians, for too long, asked "will it work" either before or instead of "is it right."  And as long as it worked, the sheer depravity of Trump was either ignored or tabled.

This is dangerous.  My guess is that Trump will not win the general election and that, when all is said and done, we will have dodged the ethical and utterly insane bullet that is the Donald.  I am willing to speculate that the coming general election campaign will render him toothless and his elite supporters spineless.  

Nonetheless, because Hillary is not loved,  and Trump is for good reason actually hated, the distance from here to there will give mud-slinging new meaning.  And, at the end of the day,  our frustrated electorate will heap even more negative ratings on the political class.

It didn't, however, have to be this way.

The elites could have rejected Trump long ago.

They could have stood for something other than themselves.

This week we celebrate the life of a boxer  willing to go to jail because he wouldn't go to war.  

Muhammad Ali did not ask himself or his advisers what would work. Had he done so, the answer would have been obvious -- enlist; you are the heavyweight champion of the world; you will be sent to some safe haven, called upon to build up troop morale, and then sent home when your time is up. Robbed of his livelihood at precisely the time his gifts were supreme, he still chose conscience over accommodation.

Lots of  Republican office holders will be at Ali's funeral in Louisville this Friday, mourning his loss and singing his praises.  

That's fine.  

But when they go home . . .  

They need to start following his example.



Friday, April 29, 2016

PROFILES IN (DIS)COURAGE(MENT)

PROFILES IN (DIS)COURAGE(MENT)

It is, frankly speaking, depressing.

The Grand Old Party is about to nominate a grand old fraud.

The misogynist, congenitally uninformed, race-baiting birther and tweeter-in-chief, Donald Trump.

What went wrong?

Even the post-mortems are depressing.

The conventional view is that the Republicans are now reaping the whirlwind they have been sowing for over forty years.  Going back to Nixon's tough-on-crime appeals to the silent (and mostly white) majority, through George H.W. Bush's turning Willie Horton into a poster child for liberalism's ostensible idiocy, to Romney's trope on the 47% who believe they are "victims" "dependent on government" (we all know who they are), the dog whistles on race have, it is said, come home to roost.  The party of Lincoln has been reduced to a rump caucus where (mostly) angry, un- or under-employed white men easily swallow the Trump lie that illegal immigrants, affirmative action, feminists, foreigners and minorities (including the current President) are responsible for their plight.

There is a lot of truth to this view.

But there is also a lot about it that is false.

Because it lets the GOP elites off the hook . . .

Way too easily.

The plain fact is that opposing Donald Trump should have been a no-brainer for any Republican office-holder in this country.  The list of disqualifiers was so long that none of them needed to wait much longer than a nano-second before declaring their opposition. 

Whether you focused on Trump's support for the birthers (a truly psychotic bunch who spent years questioning Obama's birthright citizenship), his misogynistic comments on women ("fat pigs," "dogs," "disgusting animals"), his racism (undocumented Mexican immigrants as "rapists" and "criminals"), his equivocation on David Duke (who everyone knows is a white supremacist but about whom Trump professed ignorance), his modern day brown-shirtism (telling supporters to "punch the crap out of" protesters; he'll pay the legal fees if the "punchers" are charged), or his ignorance on fundamental issues of policy  (as in what constitutes the nuclear triad or whether, after seventy years of bi-partisan non-proliferation, we should be encouraging any country to go nuclear), Trump  offered an almost daily-reason to say "be gone."

And even if  none of the Republican elite, being politicians, needed to analyze the necessity of disavowing Trump much before seeing the poll numbers he was generating last year in the run up to the primaries and caucuses, the responsibility to get rid of him -- or at least try very hard -- became unavoidable once he started winning.

But the vast majority of them sat on their hands . . .

And are still doing so.

The latest equivocator is Indiana Governor Mike Pence.  He announced yesterday that he thought Trump was "great" but would vote in the next week's Indiana primary for Cruz.  This was considered an endorsement for Cruz.  In truth, however,  it was more in the nature of a "who cares."  It's as if a German in the summer of 1932 said "I'm voting for the Centre Party but congrats to Adolf, who sure is telling the post-Versailles world -- and all those bankers -- a thing or two." Lindsey Graham lauded Pence for "standing up for conservatism" in endorsing Cruz.  But Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post was right when  he called Pence's "stand"  more of a "crouch."

Pence's approach, however, has been pretty typical.  Just before the Pennsylvania primary last week, that state's incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he too was voting for Cruz. 

Others have not been even that forthright.

New Hampshire's top Republican (and Senator), Kelly Ayotte, has remained neutral in the Presidential contest, as has Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin.  Both are up for re-election this year. Though only ten members of the Republican caucus in the House have endorsed Trump, of the remaining 236 GOP members, 233 of them have been silent on the choice that remains.  The other thirty-three have endorsed Cruz, who has thirty-two supporters, or Kasich, who has one (to go along with his long list of former members endorsing him).  On the Senate side, of the fifty-four Republican Senators, six have endorsed Cruz, two have endorsed Kasich, and one has endorsed Trump.  That means forty-three GOP Senators remain neutral.

These people should be embarrassed.

For years, the whole group of them has regularly criticized Obama for ostensibly "leading from behind" (which, to them, means "not at all"). In their world, the current President has taken a back seat to Islamic fundamentalism (and its terrorist results), refusing to credibly engage while allowing or encouraging power vacuums and issuing false threats .  The charge is false; in fact, what Obama has done -- in the face of a reality that renders American ground troops ineffective in what are now civil religious wars in Mesopotamia -- is lead through persuasion and diplomatic initiative, something the neo-cons decided to put on the shelf over a decade ago, much to our everlasting chagrin, but which  has created (albeit slowly) measurably positive results (e.g., the nuclear deal with Iran, and the multi-lateral (and largely local) pushback against ISIS).  To the GOP, this is all still a failure.

Nevertheless, you would think that a group hell bent for leadership would  at least have seized the obvious opportunity to exhibit some as a fraud like Trump hijacked their presidential nomination.

Because . . .

If those 233 GOP members of the House of Representatives and forty-three GOP Senators had collectively led the fight to rid their party of Trump, there was at least a reasonable chance he would not be the GOP's presumptive nominee today.

Dante is reported to have said that "The hottest places in Hell are reserved for those who in time of moral crisis preserve their neutrality."  In fact, he didn't say it.  Instead, President Kennedy attributed the quote to him, as have many others using variations on the theme.  

Never mind.  

JFK's Dante was right.

And today he is looking at all those Republican office holders . . .

Sitting on the sidelines . . . 

As the Donald marches on.






Wednesday, March 30, 2016

A TERRIBLE BEAUTY

A TERRIBLE BEAUTY

Here's the weird part.

I may have to thank Donald Trump.

Who got me thinking about immigration.

I am Irish and proud of it.  My full (and formal) name -- Cornelius Patrick McCarthy -- shouts Irish from the rafters.  I will regale any who listen with tales of great grandparents and grand uncles and aunts from Cork who came and manned the mills in Lawrence, Massachusetts and the precincts of New York City.

Of course, I am not  actually Irish.  I am American.

And though Americans whose grand parents were born in Ireland  can become dual nationals, I am not one of them either.  All my grandparents were born here.  In fact, that fourth paragraph is a bit of a stretch.  

Because, truth be told, three quarters of my great grandparents were born here as well.

So, is this whole Irish thing a big put on?  Am I just one of those white-haired, fair-skinned, unmistakably celtic-looking pretenders who wears green,  eats corned beef (which the Irish themselves do not eat),  and dodges drunks  on Paddy's Day?

Or am I the real thing?

In fact, what is the real thing?

And that's where The Donald comes in.

After the insults, adolescent narcissism and misogyny,  Trump's signature move in this presidential season has been his stand on immigration.  There are three parts to his dance.  First, there is "the Wall."  "A nation without borders is not a nation," says Trump; what he really means, however,  is that "a nation which can't keep out illegals is not a nation."  So Trump will build a wall across the 1,954 mile border between the US and Mexico, and every time Mexico complains, the wall will get bigger.  

Second, there is the racist xenophobia.  At the announcement of his candidacy, Mexican immigrants became "rapists" and "criminals" -- who were "not you" -- being sent north by a country off-loading its undesirables.  

Finally, xenophobia and nativism on immigration is side-carred with religious bigotry as a tool in the fight against terrorism. In this phase of Trumpism, the need for better intel and -- in Europe -- interstate coordination and information sharing is either jettisoned (or put on hold) as the principal approach in exchange for a wholesale ban on non-citizen Muslim entrants into the country until the government "can figure out what is going on."  It is apparently irrelevant that the government has already "figured out" that the vast  majority (99.99%) of Muslims are not terrorists.  

Or that most terrorist acts since 1985 have been committed by non-Muslims.

It's very easy to chalk all this up to Trump's inherent flaws.  He is a clown, a charlatan and a con-man. He has no respect for truth or facts.  He is immature in ways that are both clinical and scary.

Nevertheless, his views on immigration are shared by a large group of Americans who share none of these flaws.  Which begs the ultimate question.

Which is . . . 

Why?

Here is my answer.

Trump is plowing very fertile ground.

At least three myths define the story of immigration in America.  The first is the myth of the melting pot and its first cousin -- assimilation.This is a myth about history. It claims that, in our nation of immigrants, everyone who came somehow morphed into an androgynous American whole.  The second is the southern border myth; this is the one Trump highlights with impunity in  his "a nation without borders is not a nation" mantra; it treats the line between Mexico and the US as inherent (and sacred) when in fact it was accidental (and utterly profane).  The third is the illegality myth, the notion that the number of illegal or undocumented aliens is increasing and reeking economic havoc, principally in the form of wage suppression.

These are myths because none of these claims are factually correct. As a general rule, immigrants historically have learned English and integrated into the American economy.  They have not, however, assimilated, at least not in the sense set forth in the dictionary, which defines the word to mean one who conforms to or resembles the group. In fact, to the contrary, immigrant groups stuck together and still do.  Each group brought its distinctive cultures, foods, and prayers to these shores. They may have acquired a new identity, but they did not lose their old one.

The southern border myth is equally mistaken.  There was nothing pre-ordained about our southern border,  and it certainly cannot be used to define the nation.  The border itself was the product of a war -- the Mexican-American War of 1846 -- fought largely as a consequence of a linguistic dispute over which river properly constituted the Rio Grande separating the two countries.  Texans thought it was the southern Rio Grande and Mexicans thought it was the northern one, which Texans called the Nuesces.  Today that dispute would be arbitrated.  In 1846, however,  it became the pretext for a show of force designed to provoke an attack that would allow the US the seize the greater part of what was then northern Mexico (and is now our southwest plus California).

It did.

And then the US did.

One of the ironies is that the Mexican-American War was itself rooted in the earlier war between Texas and Mexico, an earlier war caused by Mexico outlawing slavery in 1829 and making American immigration into Texas (then a Mexican province)  illegal.  This, however, did not stop the Americans, who entered illegally anyway and then later fought for and won their independence. (Remember the Alamo!)

The irony, of course, is that Americans were illegal immigrants into Mexico long before any Mexicans violated "our" southern border. Another irony is that, once the US prevailed in the war, the largest part of the new southwestern US and California was composed of hitherto Mexican citizens and was marked by an Hispanic culture that left its imprint on law, architecture, and names.  Today, the oldest capital city in the US is not located in New England or Virginia.  It is located in Santa Fe, New Mexico.  And the coast of California is not dotted with cities and towns named for dukes or English shires. The names are largely those of Catholic saints provided by Spanish missionaries.

In any case, so much for the sanctity of the southern border.  It definitely established a boundary.  It did not, however,  define a culture or a nation.

Then there is the illegality myth, the myth that more illegals are entering than leaving and that they are doing some kind of permanent damage to our economy.  It is false on both counts.  On the one hand, the population of undocumenteds or illegals has declined significantly over the last nine years and more are now leaving than coming.  On the other, economic studies have shown that immigration -- including the work of undocumented immigrants -- is a huge plus for both the economy as a whole and even for low income workers.  In fact, President Bush's own Council of Economic Advisers estimated in 2008 that American workers actually make $30 billion annually in wage gains as a result of immigration.

So, where to from here?  

Trump is only the latest xenophobe.

There is, however,  no way we can even hope to make him the last unless we eliminate the myths.

And tell a new -- and more accurate -- story about our "nation of immigrants." 

In that new narrative, America is not a melting pot.  It is a mosaic.  It is stitched together to be and remain whole.  But its parts are distinct -- multi-colored and multi-textured.  Each of us who claims immigrant heritage (and, since most of us must, even those who blindly ignore it) is a hyphenated American.  (Or, as Will Ferrell put it in a recent SNL skit, "Unless your name is Running Bear, we are all anchor babies.").  What makes me American are the values enshrined in the Declaration of Independence and Constitution, not the the line drawn between me and Canada or me and Mexico. 

And what makes me Irish are my ancestors and (therefore) my genes. There is nothing phony about it.

The poet William Butler Yeats once wrote: 
               
                                Now and in time to be,
                                Wherever green is worn,
                                Are changed, changed utterly:
                                A terrible beauty is born.

Though he  was speaking of the Irish Rising of  1916, his words are as apt for the Irish immigrants who peopled these shores by the millions in the 19th century.  In art, literature, music, politics and sport, those immigrants changed the face of America.

Which today basks in the "terrible beauty" they -- and all their immigrant neighbors -- created.

PS --  A larger version of this essay was presented as the Spring Honors Lecture at Mt. Aloysius College in Cresson, Pennsylvania on St. Patrick's Day.  For any who are interested, the link to that lecture is available here.















Friday, March 11, 2016

THE DONALD DILEMMA

THE DONALD DILEMMA

The last Republican debate took place last night and by their standards it was a remarkably civil affair.

No name calling or insults.  No references  -- as my daughter put it after their last debate --  to the size of anyone's "downstairs."  No shameless hawking of vodka or steak or wine.

And therein lies Donald Trump's problem.

Here's what I mean.

For the last eight months, Donald Trump has run a campaign for the Presidency based largely on the notion that he is not politically correct and is just saying things others are thinking but do not have the courage to broadcast.  Hence his condemnation of Mexican immigrants as "rapists," his wholesale exclusion of non-citizen Muslims, his "punch him in the face" thuggery when confronted by protesters.  

At the same time, he has abjured any argument or real details on policy in taking on his fellow candidates.  So, instead of really explaining how his positions on Social Security or trade or immigration or beating terrorism were better than those offered by his opponents, he touted his poll numbers and spouted phrases and one liners (he'll make "great deals" on trade; it'll be a "great wall" excluding Mexicans; our military will be so "powerful . . . we're never going to have to use it").  

And then simply belittled his adversaries.

The puerile ad hominems are now the stuff of minor legend.

Jeb Bush was "low energy."  Chris Chistie was "the bridge."  Carli Fiorina was "that face" that could not be President.  Dr. Ben Carson was "pathological" and the voters "stupid" in being taken in by Carson's  knife-on-belt assault story.  And, of course, Senator Rubio was "little Marco" and Senator Cruz "lyin' Ted." With no body part to pick on, and no doubt running out of rhetorical steam, Trump's train of insults slowed when it got to John Kasich -- he was merely an "absentee Governor" and a "lost cause."

Last night, however, we got none of that.  Instead, Trump's competitors were left to more less trot out their positions at length, as was Trump himself.  The problem, however, is that Trump really doesn't have any positions.  He has slogans and one liners.  But  if you throw him into any pool that requires mildly deep analysis of policy, he drowns.  

As he did last night.

The best example of this in the debate was the back and forth on the Administration's new Cuba policy. As he is on a number of issues, Trump is actually to the left of the GOP field when it comes to Cuba. In deriding the recent status  quo, he correctly asserts-- and said last night -- that "50 years is enough."   Though he claims he would have "made a better deal, " he thinks -- and said last September -- that rapprochment "is fine." 

Seizing an opening, and playing to the anti-Castro home crowd at the University of Miami where the debate was held, Senator Rubio then pounced, laying out  five things he would have had Cuba do before agreeing to a renewed diplomatic relationship -- free elections, free speech, removal of Chinese listening stations, no assistance to North Korea, and the extradition of criminal defendants who have taken refuge on the island.

Rubio's -- and (sans Trump) the entire GOP's -- essential criticism of the new policy is that it does not eliminate or even mitigate Cuba's human rights violations, which is true.  The problem, however, is that the embargo imposed on Cuba for the past five decades hasn't stopped those violations.  In addition, and as is the case with most embargoes that fail, the rest of the world has not been on our side. Consequently, while the embargo hurt Cuba and stopped it from trading with what should be its natural and largest trading partner -- namely, us -- it did not cripple the regime or the island. 

Engagement may not end anti-democratic abuses in Cuba.  

But disengagement clearly did not end such abuses and Cuba itself is on the cusp of change.  

The Castro brothers are old.  Fidel has retired and Raul, the current President, is 84.  Neither will last forever and when they are gone, there is no one who can combine the offices of Presidency and Premier the way they have. 

A few years ago I had lunch with a minor Cuban official working at the UN.  He told me that the Castro presidency was unique and would not be duplicated; that Castro was their "George Washington" (he left out the fact that Washington resigned his military commission after the Revolutionary War and left after two terms as President, but never mind for now); that once gone, the Cuban President would simply be a head of state and the Cuban Premier would do policy.  

This is important.  Because, without the power inherent in the duopoly the two Castro brothers  have enjoyed, dictatorship is not as possible or likely and space opens for a more pluralistic politics.  This does not mean a new Cuba will reject socialism.  But it very well may reject Castro-ism, a hard line variant of socialism that rejects even the type of market approaches China has adopted over the last two decades.

And even at this early stage, there are some signs that this may be the case.  Cuba itself, as we all know, is in love with baseball  (that love has even spawned the apochryphal tale that Fidel tried out for the major leagues).  Until now, Cuban ball players have been barred from playing in the United States, and those that are doing so have effectively renounced the island and their relatives.  With the rapprochment, however, Cuba's athletes will soon be able to try out and play in the major leagues without having to flee the island.

That's small progress.  

But it is progress.

And it would not have happened under the old policy that Senator Rubio and the rest of the GOP would have us return to.

An informed opponent could have pointed some or all of this out in last night's GOP debate.  But Donald Trump is not such an opponent and therefore did not do so.  In fact, beyond the repetitive "I-would-have-made-a-better-deal" mantra, he said nothing in response to Rubio's critique. 

Which is why he needs the insults, the narcissim, the thuggery.

It fills the space -- at debates, at rallies, at press conferences -- that would otherwise be filled with the exhibition of knowledge and policy 

Hence the Donald dilemma.  

He either gets to show us -- as he did last night on the Cuba issue and many others -- that he is uninformed.

Or he gets to show us that he is an insulting, narcissistic and even dangerous boor -- as he has throughout the entire primary campaign.

Either way . . .

He loses a general election.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

ANTONIN SCALIA

ANTONIN SCALIA

I remember when I heard his name for the second  time.

The first time was in the summer of 1981.  Ronald Reagan had been President for about seven or eight months and The New York Times ran a story listing a group of law professors he intended to appoint to the various U.S. Courts of Appeals.  Scalia -- along with Posner, Bork, Winter and Easterbrook -- was on the list.  All of them were ex or current law professors.

And constituted President Reagan's brigade of conservative intellectuals.

The second time was about a year to two thereafter.  By then I was working as a law clerk for one of Reagan's brigade.  In between bench memos, opinion drafts and editing conferences, we clerks drank coffee and socialized with the judge (who, by the way, are in need of constant socializing for the simple reason that being an appellate judge is a very lonely job).  At one of those coffee klatches, we were speculating on who President Reagan would pick as his second appointee to the Supreme Court (Sandra Day O'Connor had been his first, very early in his initial term.)

The Judge's candidate was . . .

"Nino" Scalia.

Who, by then, I had totally forgotten.

When I asked why that would happen, the answer had nothing to do with judicial philosophy or originalism or antidotes to liberal activism.  Instead,  according to my boss, Scalia would get the nod because he was Catholic and Italian.  At the time, the Supreme Court lacked the latter and had only one of the former.

Wow!

I never thought I'd ever say this .

But let's bring back the good old days . . .

When politics was normal and even Supreme Court justices were evaluated by more than their fidelity to extremist ideologies.

Because we are nowhere near normal today.

Justice Scalia, as everyone now knows, died yesterday.  Instead of a bi-partisan period of mourning, we have been catapulted into a year long political mud wrestle.  In the not too long ago old days, Justice Scalia's death would have been greeted with a bi-partisan period of mourning -- one where opponents and adversaries praised the intellectual firepower, side-splitting humor, and genuine loyalty of the man.  Today, however, Nino's passing to the other side is met with an obligatory nano-second of condolences, followed by a torrent of hypocritical posturing.

This is all so childish.

Indeed, so much so  that we have to revert to kids rules even to referee the contest.  Under which, the first comment that has to be made is  .  .  .

Sen. McConnell started it.

That's right.  

Within an hour of the announcement of Justice Scalia's death yesterday, McConnell issued a statement saying that the seat on the Supreme Court left vacant thereby "should not be filled until we have a new President."  McConnell asserted this was necessary because "the American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice."  Of course, the American people already had such a voice.  They exercised it in 2012 when they re-elected Barack Obama to the Presidency, a position which -- on this issue -- comes with a written job description -- called the Constitution -- entitling the holder to nominate justices to the Supreme Court when vacancies arise. Though conservatives like McConnell regularly praised Justice Scalia for a commitment to enforcing our founding text as written, that rule apparently has been waived in the last year of the Obama presidency.

McConnell's hypocrisy was then met with a cascade of supporting endorsements.

In the Republican debate last night, five of the six left in this season's crop of GOP ideologues agreed that Obama either shouldn't -- or would not be allowed to -- fill the vacancy.  (The outlier was Jeb Bush,  who -- given his relentless attacks on Trump and now unique willingness to abide by the Constitutional rules on selecting members of the Supreme Court -- has become the only GOP candidate I can remotely respect.)  In any case, the Gang of Five claimed there was "precedent" for this refusal, invoking at or after the debate different versions of the assertion made by Republican Sen. Grassley that "It's been standard practice over the last 80 years to not confirm Supreme Court nominees during a presidential election year."

That claim, however, gives hyperbole new meaning.

At one level, it is demonstrably false.   If eighty (80) years is a cutoff, then there have been at least two instances where confirmations have occurred in presidential election years. Justice Butler -- a Roosevelt appointee --  was confirmed in 1940,  and Justice Kennedy, though nominated by President Reagan in November 1987, was confirmed after hearings were held in 1988, both Presidential election years. 

The notion that there is something magical about eighty years is also sheer nonsense. In fact, the reason Grassley chose it is because, before 1940,  there had been numerous Supreme Court nominations and confirmations in presidential elections years. President Taft did it in 1912; President Wilson did it (twice) in 1916; and President Hoover did it in 1932.  Among those ostensibly politicized jurists who, in Sen. McConnell's words, the American people never had a "voice" in selecting were Justices Brandeis and Cardozo.  Brandeis was one of Wilson's appointees in 1916 and Cardozo was Hoover's in 1932.

Neither, of course, were judicial lightweights.

In fact, both of them became giants on the Supreme Court, lauded in their day with the encomia being laid at the feet of Justice Scalia today.

On Meet the Press this morning, conservative talker Hugh Hewitt said the Kennedy confirmation in 1988 didn't count, ostensibly because the nomination came in late '87 (oh what a difference two months makes) and followed the Senate's rejection of President Reagan's original nominee for that vacant seat (Robert Bork).  (Hewitt would say the same thing about the 1912 and 1940 confirmations because, in each case, those nominations were announced late in the year before.)

As with many explanations designed to fit pre-determined conclusions, this one turns out to refute itself.  On the one hand, the Senate's deliberations and vote on the Kennedy nomination -- namely, all the interesting and contentious stuff -- occurred in a presidential election year, as will be the case when Obama sends his nominee to the Senate this year.  The two circumstances are perfectly comparable.  On the other, apart from Constitutional requirements, the reason hearings and deliberations had to go forward on Justice Kennedy (after the Bork rejection) is that the Court would have been operating for too long without a sitting ninth justice.  It would have had only eight members instead of nine, creating the possibility of four to four splits.

The problem of equal division cannot be gainsaid.  Without Scalia, the present Court on most contentious issues -- abortion; the right of unions to charge non-members a fee for having negotiated wages; the death penalty; whether Obamacare is authorized by the commerce clause -- is now split four to four. The consequence is that it really cannot decide anything on those cases or issues. Granted, some of them are over (e.g., whether the commerce clause authorizes the Affordable Care Act; it doesn't under current precedent but the taxing power does so the ACA is constitutional). Others, however, are alive and on the Court's current docket.   

If the Court hears these cases and remains deadlocked at four each, the lower court decisions and orders will be deemed "affirmed by an equally divided Court."   In other words, the Supreme Court will no longer be supreme.  Instead, that honor will fall to a lower panel of appellate judges.  And it gets worse.   The federal appellate courts -- there are twelve of them throughout the country -- are often split on issues; in fact, disagreement among the various appellate circuits, and even within them, is a typical reason the Supreme Court agrees to hear a case in the first place.  With a deadlocked court, those splits remain and what is illegal in one jurisdiction can be legal in another. 

That's not the rule of law.

It's chaos.

Had the Democrats not gone forward with hearings and a confirmation vote on Justice Kennedy in 1988, the seat he filled would have been left vacant for more than a year.  If today's Republicans do not hold hearings and confirm an Obama nominee, the vacancy period will be as long.  In 1988, the Democrats controlled the Senate, just as the Republicans control it today.  Had the Democrats wanted to, they easily could have refused to go forward with hearings on Justice Kennedy and taken their chances on winning the Presidency.  But they didn't. 

Because . . .

Sometimes politicians really do put country first.

Finally, there is the whole question of what -- precisely -- Sen. Grassley means when he says there is an eighty (80) year-old "standard practice" of  avoiding Supreme Court confirmations in presidential election years.  As far as I can tell from the historical record, this has occurred only once, with Abe Fortas's nomination to replace Chief Justice Warren in 1968, and in that case, President Johnson did not pull the nomination because it was a  presidential election year; he pulled it because the nomination was being filibustered on a bi-partisan basis.

In Sen. Grassley's arbitrary eighty years, the only other time -- after Justice Kennedy in 1988 --  there was even the possibility of an election year nomination and confirmation was in 1956 when Justice Brennan replaced retiring Justice Minton.  In that case, however, far from refusing to go forward, President Eisenhower actually put Brennan on the Court with a recess appointment that did not even require Senate action. (Though Brennan was thereafter re-nominated and confirmed in 1957 when the Senate was back in session, no one appears to have drawn and quartered Ike for having jumped the appointing gun in a presidential election year.)

Why are we in this mess?

The answer is division,  and -- frankly -- a Republican Party bound by nothing other than the hypocritical assertion of its raw power.  The arguments about "standard practice" and allowing the American people a "voice" are transparently false.  There has been no standard practice (if anything, there's been the opposite) and Americans decided three plus years ago who should fill a Supreme Court vacancy were it to occur in 2016.  They did that in 2012 and the guy they chose was Obama -- not Romney, or any of the six Republicans now running for President, or even Hillary or Bernie Sanders.  None of them has the right to make this decision and giving it to any of them would not honor the Constitution.  It would demean it.

The GOP is preemptively telling Obama it will not go forward on anyone he sends up for one and only one reason.  And that is this . . .

It can.

And, unfortunately, the reason the GOP embraces this raw assertion of power, draping it in a curtain of false justifications, is that this approach worked in the past.  In fact, it worked in the not too distant past . . .

In 2000 . . . 

When five unelected justices invented an equal protection claim that had no precedential support, stopped a re-count which had been ordered by a state Supreme Court, effectively got to vote twice, and then (illegitimately) put George W. Bush in the White House.

One of those Justices was Antonin Scalia.

I praise his intellect, his devotion to public service, his sense of humor, his enormous family, and his close friendship with the liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the latter of which proves he did not take himself too seriously and which -- in the ethereal circles he travelled for almost thirty years of his life -- was a very good thing.  

I am proud he and I graduated from the same Jesuit high school -- Xavier -- in lower Manhattan.  The Jesuits know how to educate people and in his case they obviously did not fail.  

Nevertheless, Antonin Scalia wasn't a genius and his jurisprudence created more problems than it solved.  The invented basis that led to the appointment of Bush II was one of them; we are still dealing with its consequences at home and abroad.  But there were others, principally in the form of an asserted devotion to text that proved to be much less consistent, and much more unbounded, than he (or his legion of conservative supporters) claimed it to be.  Contra Scalia, the Constitution is not a "living" document because a bunch of liberal ex-law professors sitting on the Supreme Court say it is.  It is a living document because the founders used words -- like due process and equal protection -- that do not have fixed meaning.  Today's conservative jurists rarely see this.

So . . .

May Justice Scalia  rest in peace.

And may the rest of us survive his legacy.










Monday, February 1, 2016

WHAT'S WRONG WITH DONALD TRUMP

WHAT'S WRONG WITH DONALD TRUMP

I am writing this just before the Iowa caucuses are set to begin. According to the latest polls, the GOP caucus is a dead heat between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  Rubio is a distant third, followed by everyone else far back in the pack.

Over the course of the last year, no one has been able to de-rail the Donald.  The other candidates have failed, even when they have tried (and most of them haven't).  Ditto the media.  Jeb Bush was not far from the truth in the last Republican debate -- the one without Trump (which also seems not to have dented him) -- when he said that most of his co-candidates were MIA earlier in the year when he tried to take on Trump. 

Actually, Bush the Third said they were in the "witness protection program."

But, for our purposes, that's basically the same thing.

In any case, this teflon Trump has everyone flummoxed.  

No one can figure out what is wrong with him, though all are certain something has to be.  His polling floor (about 35%) seems also to be his ceiling, making it difficult for him to grow his vote.  His campaign is based almost entirely on insult; in fact, the New York Times yesterday published an exhaustive list of all the insults he has tweeted over the course of the campaign, as well as all the targets of his vitriol; the list reads like it's the work of an over-testosteroned adolescent (which it well may be).  

His policy proposals border on being stupid, whether they're about building a wall across the southern border (expensive and utterly unnecessary given the fact that more illegals are leaving than arriving), or stopping non-citizen Muslims at any of them (dead on arrival in any court and cat-nip for the terrorists), or repealing and replacing Obamacare (without remotely specifying what the "replacement" will amount to), or denying global warming.  He claims he will create economic growth at the annual rate of 6%; the plan, however, is nothing but the re-jiggered tax cutting Republicans have been advocating and practicing for thirty years, and it has never done so.

Still, the Donald marches on.  And the question is . . .

Why?

Here's the answer.

First, he is at this moment swimming in the smallest of ponds, namely, the GOP primary electorate. Over the course of the last thirty years, that electorate has become (1) increasingly (and radically) right wing and (2) increasingly (and disturbingly) angry. Though some of Trump's one line policy positions are not shared by all of that group (e.g., ending the carried interest loophole for hedge funders), his crypto-fascist xenophobia either is (or is ignored as a needed "conversation starter"). And the insults are simply embraced and adored, which is basically what happens when anger becomes a substitute for reason.

Nevertheless, 35% of the GOP electorate is about 10-12% of the country, and 10-12% does not an ultimate victory make.

Lots of nuts have squirreled away similar slices of the American electorate over the years  (e.g., the Know Nothings in the 1850s, who wanted to stop Catholics from voting, increase the naturalization period from five to twenty-one years to stop immigrants from becoming citizens, and -- when all else failed -- actually kill Catholic voters on election days).

None of them, however, have wound up running the country. 

Second, his current competitors -- with the exception of Bush -- aren't attacking him correctly.  In fact, they can't.  They all want Trump's voters on the day the Donald loses.  So, the attack on Trump's temperament -- which in any normal year would be an immediate disqualifier -- is watered down. Instead of calling him a carnival barking, thin-skinned, dangerous clown who should get nowhere near the nuclear button,  he is treated as an entertaining showman (by Rubio), or as "inexperienced" (Christie's take on the Muslim ban), or as just "overreacting" (Fiorina on the ban).  The total cowards simply disagree politely (Cruz on the Muslim ban -- "that is not my policy"). 

You cannot,  however, beat a bully with an airbrush.

You have to knock him down.

Third, because his current competitors are treating him with kid gloves, Trump has been given a pass on his putative strength as a businessman and deal maker, all of which is at this point assumed by anyone watching the coverage.  The problem with that view, however, is that it is wrong.  Indeed, as Tim O'Brien recently wrote for Bloomberg, "a well-documented and widely reported trail of bad deals litters Trump's career as a real estate developer and gambling mogul." O'Brien continued: "Fueled by a slew of bank loans in the late 1980s, Trump absorbed an airline, a football team, a landmark hotel, a bunch of casinos, a yacht, and other nifty stuff -- almost all of which he lost because he couldn't juggle the debt payments."  

As importantly, on the only real-estate deal he tried to maintain over a period of years -- his plan to develop Manhattan's West Side Rail Yards into a $4.5 billion "Television City" that would combine residential and commercial space and provide a new home for NBC -- he was stiff-armed by NYC's then-Mayor Ed Koch and ultimately wound up with only collateral interests worth a fraction of his planned return on a project owned by foreigners.  His response to all of this -- typical of him even then -- was to insult Koch.  But Koch -- who could out-Trump Trump -- had the last word, telling reporters that the Donald was "squealing like a stuck pig" as his deal went south.

The lesson is clear.  If Trump deals as President the way he has dealt as a business tycoon, we are in trouble.  His deals are usually not that great.  When they go south, he creates the appearance of success by plastering his name on buildings and then jumping on the gold plated jet.  As the Texans say, he's all hat and no cattle.  This won't work in the White House.  All the people Trump is now insulting will be watching.  And watching the Donald botch the latest G-8 summit (he can't fire Merkel et. al.), or budget negotiations (he can't fire Congress), will become a cottage industry.

The other lesson inheres in exploring why Trump's deal-making has been so poor.  The underlying cause appears to be a lack of focus. According to reports, he is good for about a month on any one project and then gets bored.  This too, however, is a character trait pregnant with disaster.  Put simply, we do not need a President with the political equivalent of attention deficit disorder.

In his life, when the going has gotten tough and the deals have started to fizzle, Trump's default move -- packaged in an array of insults -- has been to bail.  Is that what we are looking at here?  

If so . . .

He may have a lot more in common with Sarah Palin than we ever suspected.